The 2024-2025 Application Season in Review

As I do every year, I have conducted a review of the 2024-2025 admissions cycle. While I primarily focus on my own practice, I also capture macro trends that I believe are important to incorporate into my advising. I hope families embarking on the college process will find helpful information in these insights.

The Macro Environment 

The Common Application is not the only method of applying to college within the United States, and it is only very sparingly used by international institutions. However, it is still the primary application platform domestically, and it provides interesting data points. 

-Total applications on the Common Application exceeded 8.5 million, a 6% increase over the 2023-2024 cycle. Those applications were submitted by just under 1.4 million individual applicants, a 4% increase over last year. Applications submitted by December 1, 2024, which captures most early decision, and many early action applications, totaled about 5.4 million, an increase of 8%. Of the 1.4 million total individual applicants in the 2024-2025 cycle, 1.1 million of them submitted at least one early application, an increase of 5% over the year prior. Within those numbers are some interesting trends which will impact students this coming application season. 

-Domestic applications continue to grow and were up 5%.

-International applications were down 1%. I expect this trend will accelerate given the current political climate in the US. 

-US student applications to UK institutions exploded this cycle (Inside Higher Ed); they were up 12%, which was the largest single year increase since record keeping began in 2006. In response, I am undertaking a credentialing program through the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) to become an International University Advocate in order to better serve students interested in pursuing college outside the United States. 

-Test score reporting increased 11% and was up for the first time since the 2021-2022 cycle, which was immediately after the challenging 2020-2021 pandemic year when the majority of students were unable to test. Average scores on both the ACT and SAT have declined 4% and 3% respectively since pre-Covid. This increase occurred before a number of colleges and universities returned to requiring standardized testing. I expect the number of students submitting testing will continue to accelerate in the coming cycle. At the same time, scores are not as strong as they were before Covid, and there are challenges in that tension that need to be addressed on an individualized basis. 

-Wellesley College just announced its cost of attendance for the 2025-2026 school year will be in excess of $100,000 (Forbes). I believe this will be matched by many colleges this spring. In response to the ever-increasing cost of college, I continue to help families understand ways to mitigate their financial burden through merit awards and financial aid programs.

My Year in Review  

*Application Timing 

-75% of my 2025 cohort applied to college under a binding early decision plan. This represents an increase over last year (64%). Of those, 67% were admitted to their ED1 college. The remaining 33% were admitted during the ED2 round. Of the 33%, one student was deferred from ED1 to ED2 and then admitted, and another student converted an EA application to an ED2 application and was admitted. The remainder initiated applications under ED2. 

-The remaining 25% of the cohort will be attending a college to which they applied using early action. One of those students was waitlisted and then admitted later in the process. The rest were all admitted at the time they applied. 

-For the second year in a row, none of my students will be attending a college to which they applied during regular decision. 

*Application Results Across Admission Probabilities

 I code student lists using four categories:

Unlikely (colleges with single digit admit rates)

Reach (either admit rates below 20% or an admitted student profile above the applicant’s)

Target (the student and the admitted student profile are aligned)

Likely (the student exceeds the admitted student profile and/or the college has a very comfortable admit rate)

I never predict admission to an unlikely or a reach college, but I have had exceptionally strong students admitted to colleges in those categories every year. Those admissions mostly occur when the student fits the admitted student profile, and the admit rate alone has determined the coding. Sometimes, there are happy surprises for undermatched students, but those are rare. I predict most students will be admitted to about 60% of their target schools. I predict students will be admitted to 90% of their likely schools. 

*Here is the breakdown for my class of 2025 

Unlikely

Admitted 0

Deferred then not admitted: 20%

Denied 80% 

Reach

Admitted 54%

Deferred then admitted 15%

Waitlisted 8%

Denied 23%

Target

Admitted 82%

Deferred then admitted 6%

Waitlisted 12%

Denied 0 

Likely

Admitted 83%

Deferred/Waitlisted 27%

Denied 0 

*These figures do not include applications that were submitted but subsequently withdrawn. 

*Applications to Specialized Programs 

About half of my seniors applied to specialized programs in business, legal studies, game design and kinesiology. The other half applied to liberal arts colleges or arts and sciences programs. I have seen a marked increase in students seeking specific academic programs, which typically require advanced planning early in high school with course work, extra curriculars and summer activities to demonstrate both aptitude and interest. 

*Attendance by Admission Probabilities 

-No student will be attending a college I coded as unlikely 

-67% will be attending a reach 

-33% will be attending a target

 -No student will be attending a likely 

*Test Optional Admissions 

75% of my students submitted testing this year. This is a notable increase over last year’s cohort of which 56% submitted scores. Of the 2022-2023 cohort, only 15% submitted scores.  

*Merit Awards

The total four-year award value received by my students this year was a staggering $2,358,000. 

*Application Numbers 

The range of applications submitted this year was a low of 1 to a high of 12. The average was 5. 

*Summary Points 

-I strongly advise students to apply early where ever possible, to prepare for later answers (not always in December for early action anymore), and to expect more deferrals as college admissions offices struggle to manage their application numbers. 

-Test optional is still a viable application option for most students, but I have returned to my pre-pandemic advice that it is optimal to test and then choose test optional as a strategy rather than as the default. 

-Merit aid is very accessible, and awards of as much as $20,000 to $30,000 per year are not uncommon. It requires some list flexibility on the part of the applicant and their family. 

-Doing the work to research, visit and find connection with a range of colleges (up and down the selectivity scale) yields positive outcomes in the end. More applications do not achieve more favorable outcomes. In fact, quite the opposite is often the case. 

-Targeted majors that require an application to a specialized program are more competitive and require that a student can demonstrate with course work and/or experience an aptitude and focused rationale for their program of choice. 

*Conclusion 

It was a wonderful year for me. I had another amazing group of hard-working, kind-hearted and truly enjoyable students. I am so proud of everything they accomplished, and I am really excited for all they have ahead of them. I continue to find deep joy in my work, and that is primarily because of the tremendous young people whom I am privileged to get to know.